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(THE HILL)What happens when the US population peaks?

Release Date
2026-05-11
Media
THE HILL
Summary
The article argues that stricter immigration policies in the United States could lead to long-term population decline, weaker economic growth, and reduced global power.

Historically, the U.S. has been a growing nation driven by both natural population growth and immigration. However, net migration fell sharply in 2025, while the Trump administration expanded deportations of undocumented immigrants. At the same time, birth rates are declining and deaths are increasing, meaning that without immigration, the U.S. population could begin shrinking within the next few decades.

The article notes that U.S. population growth in 2025 was only 0.5%, one of the lowest rates in modern history. Because economic growth depends heavily on labor, fewer immigrants and fewer young workers would reduce economic activity.

Using simulation models, the author estimates that lower immigration could reduce annual economic growth by 0.1 to 0.25 percentage points by 2030, leading to an economy that is about $1 trillion smaller by 2040 compared to previous projections.

The article also argues that even if artificial intelligence boosts productivity, China would benefit from the same technological advances. As a result, reduced immigration could weaken America’s geopolitical position relative to China.

According to the author’s forecasts, continued immigration restrictions may accelerate China’s rise and could allow it to surpass the United States as the world’s leading power by the middle of the century.

The article concludes that population-shrinking policies promoted as “America First” may ultimately undermine American economic strength and global influence in the long run.
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United States of America

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