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Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update

Release Date
2026-01-13
Media
Brookings Institution
Summary
Brookings’ January 2026 update argues that major policy shifts and tougher enforcement in the first year of the second Trump administration likely caused a sharp slowdown in U.S. immigration. The authors estimate net migration in 2025 fell to near zero or turned negative (about –10,000 to –295,000)—potentially the first negative year in at least half a century—and they expect net migration to remain very low or negative in 2026 (projected range roughly –925,000 to 185,000, with the central tendency weak/negative).

They warn this decline matters macroeconomically because recent U.S. labor-force growth has depended heavily on immigration. With fewer arrivals (and more removals/voluntary departures), labor-force growth, consumer spending, and GDP growth would be dampened. They estimate the “breakeven” pace of job growth consistent with a stable unemployment rate dropped to about 20,000–50,000 jobs per month in late 2025 and could turn negative in 2026. They also estimate reduced immigration would lower consumer spending by roughly $60–$110 billion across 2025–26.

Methodologically, the piece builds “low” and “high” scenarios by separately estimating inflows and outflows across channels (green cards issued abroad, refugees, temporary visas, humanitarian parole/border-related entries, etc.), while emphasizing that reduced data transparency since 2025 increases uncertainty. The authors conclude that the biggest driver of lower net migration is not just exits, but a slowdown in new arrivals, especially via humanitarian and refugee pathways and at the Southwest border.
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