World Immigration News

Why Immigration Policy Is Hard — a guide to breaking out of the ‘infernal circle’

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Release Date: 2025-11-28
Media: Financial Times
Summary: Economist Alan Manning’s new book, Why Immigration Policy Is Hard, offers a balanced and deeply informed explanation of why rich countries struggle to design effective immigration rules. Drawing on his experience as chair of the UK Migration Advisory Committee, Manning argues that both pro- and anti-immigration advocates overstate evidence and remain vague about their own preferred policies — a vagueness that fuels public distrust and political polarisation.

Manning stresses that migration’s costs and benefits are nuanced: wealthy countries cannot accept everyone who wishes to come, and policymakers must inevitably draw a “moral circle” around whom they choose to help. Instead of clarity, governments often fall into what he calls an “infernal circle,” where tighter restrictions push migrants to circumvent controls, voters feel borders are out of control, and governments respond with even harsher measures.

He challenges common pro-immigration claims, such as the argument that migrants are needed to fund ageing societies. Migration can help at the margins, he says, but pension reform and other domestic policies are far more effective. He also disputes both employers’ claims that migrants boost productivity and critics’ claims that migrants sharply depress wages, noting that most economic effects are modest.

Manning highlights a key trade-off: low-wage migration often benefits locals most when migrants are stuck in undesirable jobs. Migrants improve their own lives, but the host society may become more unequal. He argues for selective, skills-focused visa policies designed with a clear eye to what might go wrong.

The most difficult challenge is refugee policy. Manning contends that the current system — in which countries are responsible only for refugees who physically reach their territory — produces injustice and wastes resources on ineffective deterrence. He proposes a radical alternative: international burden-sharing through tradeable refugee quotas. While politically unrealistic today, such a system, he argues, would be far more humane and efficient.

Ultimately, Manning concludes that politicians must craft immigration policies that voters can trust if they want to curb populism. The current system is failing — and improvement is both necessary and possible.
Tags: United Kingdom

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