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The UK’s problems aren’t caused by immigration

Release Date
2025-09-18
Media
Financial Times
Summary
Tim Harford reflects on the rising concern over immigration and asylum in the UK, as shown in recent YouGov polls where it became the top public concern — the first time since before the 2016 Brexit vote. He questions whether this fear is truly grounded in either personal experience or objective data.

While many people blame immigrants for issues like long NHS wait times or high taxes, Harford notes that such connections are often hard to prove. Immigrants, in fact, are more likely to be working-age, healthier, and better educated than UK-born citizens, and many have lived in the UK for years with strong English skills.

Public perceptions of immigration are often wildly inaccurate. Studies show that people in the UK overestimate the number of immigrants, especially those from Muslim-majority countries, and underestimate their education and employment levels. Meanwhile, the cost of the UK asylum system has increased dramatically, but still remains small compared to major public expenditures like the NHS.

Harford warns that anxiety about immigration may be fueled more by emotional narratives and media fearmongering than by actual data. He calls for a more balanced perspective, akin to the approach of Alexander von Humboldt — a scientist who valued both empirical data and human experience. Ultimately, Harford argues that immigration is not the root cause of the UK’s most serious challenges.
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United Kingdom

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