World Immigration News

The Overlooked Impact of Immigration on the Size of the Future U.S. Workforce

Release Date: 2024-11-29
Media: Migration Policy Institute
Summary: Immigration has become a critical issue in the 2024 U.S. elections, driven by record migration levels and political polarization. While immigration was once broadly viewed as beneficial, a majority of Americans now favor reduced levels. However, studies by the Congressional Budget Office highlight that immigration boosts economic growth, reduces federal deficits, and mitigates inflation. Nonetheless, migration has placed significant strain on public services.

Unlike the 1920s, when restrictive immigration laws were passed, today's U.S. faces declining birth rates and an aging population, with the old-age dependency ratio projected to rise from 29% in 2023 to 37% by 2040. Immigration plays a critical role in addressing this demographic challenge by adding younger workers and expanding the future workforce through the U.S.-born children of immigrants. As of 2023, immigrants and their offspring represent 27% of the U.S. population and are projected to contribute significantly to the working-age population by 2040.

Projections show that immigration levels will greatly influence the size of the U.S. labor force, with high immigration potentially adding millions of workers compared to scenarios of reduced or zero immigration. Limiting immigration would exacerbate labor shortages and harm programs like Social Security and Medicare, particularly in states with declining populations.

To address these challenges, policymakers must align immigration policies with economic and demographic needs, ensuring adequate support and opportunities for immigrants and their children, who will play a pivotal role in sustaining the U.S. economy and workforce.
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