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Mapping America’s immigration needs: A county-level model for matching migrants to local economies

Release Date
2025-11-20
Media
Niskanen Center
Summary
The Migration Match Index (MMI), developed by the Niskanen Center, is a data-driven model designed to match migrants with U.S. counties that most need workers and have the capacity to support newcomers. Using 16 indicators—including labor demand, housing availability, cost of living, demographic trends, and migration patterns—across all 3,143 U.S. counties, the MMI identifies places where migration can produce the greatest mutual benefit.

A baseline model focuses on four key factors: job availability, housing vacancy, affordability, and aging demographics. Counties qualify when they meet several conditions: unemployment rates below 4.3%, rental vacancy rates above 5%, rent-to-income ratios at or below 30%, and a population in which at least 14% are over age 65. Based on these criteria, the model identifies 484 counties in 44 states as strong candidates for migrant resettlement and workforce support.

The report argues that the U.S. lacks a coordinated system to direct migrants to areas with labor shortages, contributing to regional inequality and political tension. The MMI aims to offer policymakers, economic developers, and migrants themselves a transparent tool for smarter resettlement decisions. While quantitative data is central, the report also emphasizes non-quantitative factors—such as community openness, safety, and civic engagement—which influence long-term integration.

The model can guide future immigration policy, humanitarian resettlement, and regional economic revitalization. Continuous data collection could allow real-time matching of migrants to communities in need. An extensive annex lists all baseline counties and provides alternative versions of the model, such as identifying counties experiencing population loss or those classified as “super-aged.”
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United States of America

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